Global economic burden will not decrease, even if international targets are met
MONDAY, March 5, 2018 (HealthDay News) — The global costs of diabetes are high and will increase substantially by 2030, according to a study published online Feb. 23 in Diabetes Care.
Christian Bommer, from the University of Göettingen in Germany, and colleagues modeled the absolute and gross domestic product (GDP)-relative economic burden of diabetes in individuals aged 20 to 79 years using epidemiological and demographic data as well as recent GDP forecasts for 180 countries. The model tested three prevalence and mortality scenarios: (1) the baseline scenario, with increases only with urbanization and population aging; (2) the past trends scenario, with increases in line with previous trends; and (3) the target scenario, which accounts for the achievement of global targets.
The researchers found that by 2030 the absolute global economic burden will increase from U.S. $1.3 trillion in 2015 to $2.2 trillion in the baseline scenario, $2.5 trillion in the past trends scenario, and $2.1 trillion in the target scenario. This means the increase in costs as a share of global GDP would grow from 1.8 percent in 2015 to a maximum of 2.2 percent.
“The global costs of diabetes and its consequences are large and will substantially increase by 2030. Even if countries meet international targets, the global economic burden will not decrease,” the authors write. “Policy makers need to take urgent action to prepare health and social security systems to mitigate the effects of diabetes.”
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