Multiple demographic and health characteristics can estimate projected long-term risk
MONDAY, Nov. 9, 2015 (HealthDay News) — The projected long-term risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) among living kidney donors can be estimated using multiple characteristics, according to a study published online Nov. 6 in the New England Journal of Medicine. The research was published to coincide with the American Society of Nephrology’s Kidney Week 2015, held from Nov. 3 to 8 in San Diego.
Morgan E. Grams, M.D., Ph.D., from the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine in Baltimore, and colleagues used risk associations from a meta-analysis of seven general population cohorts with 4,933,314 participants to project the estimated long-term incidence of ESRD. The 15-year projections were compared with the observed risk seen among 52,998 U.S. living kidney donors.
The researchers found that the 15-year risk projections of ESRD in the absence of kidney donation varied according to race and sex (0.24, 0.15, 0.06, and 0.04 percent for black men, black women, white men, and white women, respectively, for a 40-year-old person). In the presence of a lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, higher albuminuria, hypertension, current or former smoking, diabetes, and obesity, the risk projections were higher. Among kidney donors, the 15-year observed risks after donation were 3.5 to 5.3 times higher than the projected risks in the absence of donation.
“Multiple demographic and health characteristics may be used together to estimate the projected long-term risk of ESRD among living kidney-donor candidates and to inform acceptance criteria for kidney donors,” the authors write.
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