Next phase will include leveling off IBD growth, with an aging population
By Lori Solomon HealthDay Reporter
TUESDAY, May 6, 2025 (HealthDay News) — Machine learning has enabled spatiotemporal mapping of the four stages of the evolution of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), according to a study published online April 30 in Nature.
Lindsay Hracs, Ph.D., from the University of Calgary in Alberta, Canada, and colleagues identified 522 population-based studies encompassing 82 global regions and spanning more than a century (1920 to 2024) to show spatiotemporal transitions across IBD stages 1 to 3 and model stage 4 progression using machine learning.
The researchers report that developing regions in Africa, Asia, and Latin America are likely in stage 1 (emergence) and transitioning to stage 2 (acceleration in incidence) following economic growth, industrialization, urbanization, and changes in lifestyle and diet. Countries in North America, Europe, and Oceania are currently in stage 3 (compounding prevalence), with a growing number of people living with IBD, including an increasing proportion of seniors. The prevalence of IBD will continue to rise as people live longer with the disease. However, the rate of growth is expected to slow, with an aging population, and will move toward stage 4 (prevalence equilibrium), where new diagnoses are gradually balanced by age-related deaths.
“The findings enable health authorities to prepare for IBD’s growing burden and tailor interventions — whether clinical, policy driven, or preventive,” principal author Gilaad G. Kaplan, M.D., also from the University of Calgary, said in a statement.
Several authors disclosed financial ties to the pharmaceutical industry.
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