Risk equation can be recalibrated for application in different countries; good discrimination in validations
THURSDAY, March 26, 2015 (HealthDay News) — A cardiovascular disease risk equation has been developed that can be recalibrated for application in different countries, according to a report published online March 25 in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology.
Kaveh Hajifathalian, M.D., from the Harvard School of Public Health in Boston, and colleagues developed and applied a risk prediction equation for cardiovascular disease that can be recalibrated and updated for application in different countries. Data were collected from eight prospective cohort studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equation. The risk prediction equation included smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol, and considered the effects of sex and age on cardiovascular disease.
The researchers found that in internal and external validations, the risk score discriminated well, with C statistics generally 70 percent or more. The estimated 10-year fatal cardiovascular disease risk varied considerably between countries at any age and risk factor level. South Korea, Spain, and Denmark had the lowest prevalence of people at high risk of fatal cardiovascular disease, with only 5 to 10 percent of men and women having >10 percent risk and 62 to 77 percent of men and 79 to 82 percent of women having <3 percent risk. China and Mexico had the highest proportion of people with high risk of fatal cardiovascular disease.
“The estimated percentage of people at high risk of fatal cardiovascular disease was higher in low-income and middle-income countries than in high income countries,” the authors write.
One author disclosed financial ties to the pharmaceutical industry.
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